Coalition forces have sustained considerable numbers of fatalities and injuries recently. Attacks have increased over the last two weeks, not just against Coalition forces but also any non-Iraqi organization.

Attacks on Coalition forces are becoming more coordinated and more effective. Attacks on civilians and contractors throughout Iraq are also increasing. These include kidnapping, vehicle hijacking and coordinated assaults with small arms fire and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Small arms fire is backed up by RPGs.

Increasing numbers of Iraqis are reporting suspected caches of weapons to Coalition forces. Intelligence sources have been reported as indicating that Islamist extremists and former regime loyalists are in communication and exchanging information in order to extend their field of operations to areas where they are unknown. This has resulted in attacks being conducted in areas where previously there were none.

Many analysts have stated that the widening of the location of attacks is characteristic of a classic guerrilla campaign in which insurgents seek to destabilize areas that are considered peaceful, thereby slowly expanding the war zone until most of the country fears for its security. Intelligence also reports that southern Iraq is likely to be the prime target area for future insurgency operations.

Until yesterday, when a car bomb exploded, Mosul had been fairly quiet.

Security in Baghdad has deteriorated with a rise in combat indicators, information collecting and targeting that have all the hallmarks of likely future attacks. There has been an increase of individuals observing and filming so called "soft targets" such as residences, bureaus and hotels. Threats remain outstanding against embassies, media organizations, hotels, NGOs, ministries and civilians working for the Coalition Provisional Authority.

FLIGHTS
The threat to aircraft is high. Flights are minimized and sometimes cancelled completely. All types of aircraft are seen as potential targets. Due to the lack of flights it seems inevitable that there will be more attacks on vehicles and convoys along the main routes in and out of Baghdad since this is the main mode of insertion and extraction. A SAM hit a US C17 transport plane taking off from Baghdad airport early one morning, damaging one engine and injuring a member of the crew. The airport is attacked on a regular basis and roads around the area are highly dangerous.

CONVOY/VEHICLE SECURITY
Ambushes continue in the usual areas especially on main routes in and out of Baghdad. Reports state that attackers are also ambushing vehicles on alternative routes. A contractors' convoy was ambushed by small arms fire along the major route from Kuwait to Baghdad. No injuries were reported.

Off-road 4x4 sports utility vehicles seem to be a favorite target and organizations are switching to transportation that blends in with local vehicles in order to reduce the likelihood of attacks. Vehicles are still being stolen and repainted to resemble those of NGOs, emergency services and aid agencies.

The search of a minibus resulted in the discovery of AK47s with magazines, RPG rounds and grenades. The driver and an accomplice were detained.

The Basra-to-Safwan road has been considered an extremely high risk for car jacking and Coalition forces still consider the roads north of Basra a high risk.

IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices)
These continue to cause a severe problem for everyone operating in Iraq. Command-detonated explosions are a particular hazard. They are disguised as anything from garbage, rocks and drinks cans to disused vehicles. They are even placed on major installations such as railway lines, roads, pipelines and culverts.

The sophistication of IEDs is improving and they can be detonated by pagers or mobile phones, thus eliminating the need for telltale command wires.

Such devices are being found on a daily basis. Targets appear to be so varied as to include Iraqi businessmen with no connection to Coalition forces.

Other Iraqis have been targeted apparently because of their links with Coalition forces, but many because they are Sunni.

A high-tension electric pylon was found with explosives secured to each of its four legs. Two of the legs were blown but Coalition forces disarmed the charges on the other two. A cache was found containing nine assorted IEDs set up and ready for use. Numerous houses were searched resulting in the discovery of batteries, command wire, explosives and other IED material.

KIDNAPPING
Kidnaps, mostly of businessmen, government officials and Iraqis assisting Coalition forces, are still taking place. The victims' families are also threatened to deter all liaison with Westerners.

A European media company was reported to have paid $5,000 for the release of one of its staff. The going rate for kidnapped Iraqis seems to be $2,500.

GENERAL SECURITY
A growing concern for NGOs, the international civilian community, diplomats and media organizations, is deciding whether to remain in country or depart. Many organizations are leaving due to the increase in attacks against foreigners.

Three major NGOs currently in Iraq have reported that their premises in Kirkuk, Basra and Hillah are under surveillance.

There has been an increase in the security presence on the main roads in and out of Baghdad - hopefully deterring attacks on convoys.

The lack of any clear rules of engagement by Coalition forces has resulted in locals and members of Western civilian organizations becoming casualties of Coalition force reactions. Many of these deaths and injuries are caused during or shortly after the arrival of Coalition forces following an attack.

Remember that some members of the Coalition forces are young, inexperienced, and new to the area. Most of the time they are nervous and on edge. They tend to fire at anything they think may endanger their own or their comrades' security.

The reconstruction programme has been attacked throughout Iraq resulting in construction companies as well as aid agencies withdrawing their staff from the country until security improves considerably. Insurgents select and target easier, softer targets and Western organizations seen to be assisting the Coalition.

A major Australian NGO that has been in Iraq for 13 years has decided to evacuate its personnel to Amman until security improves.

Attacks involving RPGs have occurred on the mayor's office in Fallujah.

The deputy mayor of As Siniyah was assassinated by assailants driving a white Mercedes with green license plates and a white four-door saloon, also with green plates.

Three Iraqis in a BMW aimed small arms fire at the Italian embassy in a drive-by shooting. Smugglers still operate along the Syrian border and there have been exchanges of gunfire with security forces in the latest incidents.

Numerous civilian vehicles are being targeted even while escorted by Coalition forces. Due to local Iraqis informing Coalition forces of impending attacks, an anti-ambush patrol was set up resulting in a firefight and detention of four Iraqis.

Lack of safety and security communication between some organizations including media and NGOs needs to be overcome. Security affects everyone in Iraq. The over-frequent use of certain places such as restaurants, roads, etc can have fatal results. Differ your routes and avoid using the same place for dining.

Coming under Coalition fire is another potentially lethal hazard. An Italian chief diplomat to the Coalition was shot in the leg and his driver was shot in the chest when his diplomatic vehicle got too close to an American convoy.

NASIRIYAH
Since the recent bomb attack in Nasiriyah, this area still seems to be one of the safest cities in Iraq. The general situation has changed since the attack. The Italians have increased their security patrols in the city and have closed off a large area near the Caribinieri compound and the remains of the building that was bombed. Police are trying to improve security on the main routes in and out of the city.

There have been several incidents including kidnapping and distribution of propaganda leaflets. One kidnapped individual was killed after the family failed to pay the ransom.

BASRA
The situation in Basra is becoming more complicated than that in any other town in Iraq. Since the war the threat to security in Basra has fluctuated between very high to low. Originally the threat was from outsiders. The situation has again changed as it has become more active. As well as regular attacks there are reports of a large of amount of intelligence gathering. Reports have mentioned that groups from Iran and Baghdad have been targeting bridges and market areas within Basra. The main threat to NGOs in Basra continues to be crime and terrorism. Crime is usually conducted by several well-established gangs and families. Police have adopted a higher profile since the British have reduced their presence in the area. The crime rate remains very high, however. The situation is not helped by the influx of Iranians to Basra. Some 3,000 Iranian pilgrims per day have been given permission to cross the border into Iraq, many of them in the Basra area.

Baqubah, 50 km northeast of Baghdad on the edge of the Sunni Triangle, remains the second most dangerous city, with numerous anti-Coalition attacks. This seems likely to continue, as there appear to be insufficient security patrols in the area.

Ethnic tensions continue in Erbil. Recent attacks on NGOs may be indicative of the changes that are taking place. There is insufficient information to establish whether attacks against certain NGOs in Erbil are part of an organized campaign or there is domestic and criminal intent.

Tension between ethnic communities in Mosul and Kirkuk has been rising for some time, especially between Turkmen and Kurds. The security situation in the towns is deteriorating steadily with daily attacks. These have been on softer targets with trends indicating that unmarked convoys are now most commonly targeted. The recent killing and mutilation of two soldiers in Mosul indicates the vulnerability of unprotected vehicles and also a change of attitude from certain sections of the community.

JORDAN
Reports suggest that Jordan may be used as a rotation base for Coalition forces and major civilian organizations for rest over the Christmas period.

Be aware of any potential threats and terrorist incidents in and around towns and cities in Jordan. The terrorist threat is not just in Iraq; they can operate anywhere at any time.

ARMED ADVISORS
The controversial question of whether safety and security advisors should be armed has been raised once again because of the increase of terrorism throughout Iraq. If you or your organization is contemplating arming advisors, the implications of doing so must be examined thoroughly.

Advisors are restricted on the degree of safety service they can provide when they are unarmed, especially with the increase in attacks on soft targets and while transiting to and from Baghdad either in single vehicles or as part of a convoy.

Serious thought and consideration must be given to this issue if arming advisors.

If you require more information on this matter please contact Paul Rees, Managing Director, Centurion RAS Ltd - contact details at the end of this report.

OTHER INCIDENTS
Rocket and mortar attacks continue, assailants sometimes only firing one or two rockets or mortars then fleeing the area using ordinary vehicles and changing their clothes to confuse pursuit and detection.

HOTELS & BUREAUS
The emphasis is on the improvement of all security wherever media, NGOs and other Western organizations are operating and residing. Improvements have included the use of concrete barriers, sandbags, secure car parking, improved visitor screening, traffic control, first aid training of staff including local fixers and drivers, and workable escape routes in cases of emergency. Other examples of improvements are an information office/control point for bureaus and searching all visitors not recognized as bureau staff. Such people are then escorted to the relevant office and handed over to the person being visited.

General awareness should be stepped up to see if anyone is observing, videoing or photographing their location whether hotel or bureau. If this is the case, it is of paramount importance that such sightings be reported to Coalition forces or advisors.

The Al Ahrass hotel in Amara, which is known to be frequented by foreigners, has come under attack several times. Recently two vehicles belonging to contractors were damaged when a bomb exploded in the hotel parking lot.

SUMMARY
Primary threats remain former Saddam loyalists and Islamist extremists. Both continue to adapt their tactics to changes made by Coalition forces' operations.

Threats and attacks have been made against Iraqi nationals working for the CPA, police, NGOs, media personnel, embassies, diplomats, hospitals and workers, contractors, civilian aircraft, national staff, hotels and politicians - anyone not assisting attacks on Coalition forces.

A threat against the Italian embassy became an actual attack just 48 hours after the warning, so it is imperative that any non-Iraqi organization hearing of such a warning quickly makes it known to as many personnel and organizations as possible.

Information from Coalition forces to civilian organizations is often sparse. Our advisors have good communications with some of the military forces. Seek their knowledge as they may hear something of warnings.

Although politicians may insist that the security situation in Iraq has improved, there is nothing to indicate that this is so or is likely to become safer in the near future. Indeed, the arming, tactics and attacks of insurgents themselves have improved.

Insurgents can still attack the most secure buildings and compounds so never become complacent or underestimate their potential.

Too many organizations are trying to set up or operate in Iraq with the attitude of "ignorance is bliss". This is dangerous.

Think ahead
Obtain the right protective equipment
Use advisors
Seek safety advice
Above all get some training prior to operating in such regions. It may save your life.

Remember that, whenever and wherever possible, keep a low profile.

---

The MRE website is designed and maintained by:

Copyright © 2007 - Military Reporters and Editors